When to Make a Blind Steal Attempt
[Updated: An anonymous comment pointed out an error in the small blind table. Now fixed]
When playing poker I often attempt to steal the blinds. Too often, perhaps? I want to know which hands pay off for me with blind steal attempts.
If only I had a tool that allowed me to find out…hold on, there’s this Poker Copilot thingy I’ve been creating, marketing, selling, and supporting. Maybe that could help.
Poker Copilot doesn’t seem to have a “Blind Stealing Genius”…yet. So I did a manual query of the Poker Copilot database.
With the aggregate data I have, the following hands on average give a better result when trying to steal the blinds instead of folding. There are some unexpected gaps, probably due to some big losses.
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This is only a guideline; actual results are affected by many variables including your table image, the tightness of the big blind, and how you and the big blind play post-flop.
In general: from the button steal with Ax, Kx, Qx, Jx, all pocket pairs, and most connectors. If the big blind is tight, increase the range a bit.
From the small blind you can be more liberal. Steal with any picture card as well as pocket pairs, suited connectors, and the highest unsuited connectors.
Note to self: add to Poker Copilot the ability to find this easily information for your own hands.
Here are the queries I used:
For the button:
select handtype, count(*) as times, sum(takeinbigblinds)/count(*) as return
from gameplayersummary
where
starttime>DATE '2008-01-01' -- forces use of the best index for faster queries
and isplaymoney=false
and istournament=false
and ishero=true
and positionid=3 -- button
and gametypeid=3 -- no limit hold'em
group by handtype
having return > 0
order by return desc
For the small blind:
select handtype, count(*) as times, sum(takeinbigblinds)/count(*) as return
from gameplayersummary
where
starttime>DATE '2008-01-01' -- forces use of the best index for faster queries
and isplaymoney=false
and istournament=false
and ishero=true
and positionid=2 -- small blind
and gametypeid=3 -- no limit hold'em
group by handtype
having return > -0.5
order by return desc