When to Make a Blind Steal Attempt

[Updated: An anonymous comment pointed out an error in the small blind table. Now fixed]

When playing poker I often attempt to steal the blinds. Too often, perhaps? I want to know which hands pay off for me with blind steal attempts.

If only I had a tool that allowed me to find out…hold on, there’s this Poker Copilot thingy I’ve been creating, marketing, selling, and supporting. Maybe that could help.

Poker Copilot doesn’t seem to have a “Blind Stealing Genius”…yet. So I did a manual query of the Poker Copilot database.

With the aggregate data I have, the following hands on average give a better result when trying to steal the blinds instead of folding. There are some unexpected gaps, probably due to some big losses.

.

Button
Avg return > 0
Avg return
in big blinds
Small Blind
Avg return > -0.5
Avg return
in big blinds

.

AA11.64AA13.89

.

KK9.03KK10.40

.

TT4.23QQ5.51

.

JJ3.72AQ2.77

.

AK3.32992.48

.

QQ3.07JJ1.97

.

A22.39AKo1.94

.

T71.78AJ1.77

.

221.58AT1.34

.

KJ1.54JT1.19

.

AKo1.41331.16

.

KQo1.39KQ1.07

.

AQo1.36QJ0.95

.

KT1.25550.87

.

881.22660.79

.

991.10AK0.53

.

AT0.94770.52

.

AJ0.94T80.46

.

AJo0.86KT0.43

.

A80.86T90.42

.

T80.77A40.39

.

A40.76KJ0.38

.

750.64A9o0.32

.

ATo0.64970.32

.

K40.63A50.30

.

J90.63540.28

.

520.54980.21

.

76o0.46A80.17

.

T60.45K30.00

.

K60.45KQo-0.01

.

K70.41Q4-0.05

.

J80.41K6-0.07

.

JT0.3976-0.10

.

T40.3944-0.13

.

A4o0.39AJo-0.16

.

K30.38A3-0.16

.

530.35K7-0.16

.

970.34Q9-0.19

.

QTo0.34AQo-0.21

.

Q30.3365o-0.22

.

A50.3164-0.22

.

A6o0.30A8o-0.22

.

KJo0.2998o-0.22

.

950.28A7o-0.23

.

QT0.25ATo-0.24

.

QJo0.25J9-0.25

.

98o0.24Q8-0.25

.

Q50.2395-0.26

.

K3o0.22QTo-0.28

.

Q80.21K5-0.30

.

420.21T4-0.31

.

Q70.20A2-0.31

.

980.20Q2-0.32

.

J20.2063-0.33

.

K6o0.19Q6-0.33

.

A60.18KJo-0.33

.

640.18J4-0.33

.

K8o0.17J6-0.34

.

740.14TT-0.34

.

Q9o0.13K9o-0.34

.

630.13J7-0.35

.

T8o0.10A6-0.35

.

65o0.10J5-0.35

.

920.10Q3-0.36

.

Q90.10K6o-0.37

.

J3o0.08K2-0.37

.

K5o0.07QJo-0.38

.

J6o0.07A6o-0.38

.

J60.0683-0.39

.

A9o0.06K4o-0.39

.

74o0.0585-0.41

.

A90.05T5-0.42

.

A3o0.0574-0.42

.

T7o0.04J3-0.42

.

Q4o0.04J7o-0.42

.

J40.04KTo-0.43

.

Q3o0.04T6o-0.43

.

830.0332-0.43

.

Q6o0.0396o-0.43

.

J4o0.03J8o-0.44

.

870.03Q2o-0.44

.

Q2o0.03T9o-0.44

.

64o0.0397o-0.45

.

T5o0.03Q5o-0.45

.

840.03Q8o-0.45

.

K20.0262-0.45

.

820.02K5o-0.45

.

Q5o0.01J4o-0.45

.

53o0.0175-0.46

.

770.01T2o-0.46

.

T6o0.01Q9o-0.46

.

Q8o0.0094o-0.46

.

T3o0.00J2o-0.46

.

92o0.0083o-0.46

.

97o0.0022-0.46

.

T4o0.0062o-0.47

.

J8o0.0092o-0.48

.

52o-0.48

.

42-0.48

.

53o-0.48

.

73o-0.48

.

T5o-0.49

.

T8o-0.49

.

72o-0.49

.

32o-0.49

.

64o-0.49

.

73-0.49

.

82-0.49

.

Q4o-0.49

.

87o-0.50

.

A4o-0.50

.

63o-0.50

.

T3o-0.50

.

42o-0.50

.

A9-0.50

.

Q7o-0.50

.

82o-0.50

.

Q6o-0.50

This is only a guideline; actual results are affected by many variables including your table image, the tightness of the big blind, and how you and the big blind play post-flop.

In general: from the button steal with Ax, Kx, Qx, Jx, all pocket pairs, and most connectors. If the big blind is tight, increase the range a bit.

From the small blind you can be more liberal. Steal with any picture card as well as pocket pairs, suited connectors, and the highest unsuited connectors.

Note to self: add to Poker Copilot the ability to find this easily information for your own hands.

Here are the queries I used:

For the button:

select handtype, count(*) as times, sum(takeinbigblinds)/count(*) as return
from gameplayersummary
where
starttime>DATE '2008-01-01' -- forces use of the best index for faster queries
and isplaymoney=false
and istournament=false
and ishero=true
and positionid=3 -- button
and gametypeid=3 -- no limit hold'em
group by handtype
having return > 0
order by return desc

For the small blind:

select handtype, count(*) as times, sum(takeinbigblinds)/count(*) as return
from gameplayersummary
where
starttime>DATE '2008-01-01' -- forces use of the best index for faster queries
and isplaymoney=false
and istournament=false
and ishero=true
and positionid=2 -- small blind
and gametypeid=3 -- no limit hold'em
group by handtype
having return > -0.5
order by return desc