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Tuesday, 21 April 2009

A Pair of Aces Twice in a Row?

There's been a discussion on 2+2 of the odds of getting dealt a pair of aces in Texas Hold'em twice in a row.

My immediate thinking was: the odds of getting dealt aces in (4*3) in (52*51) = 1 in 221. The odds of this twice in a row in 1 in (221 * 221) = 1 in 48841.

I was wrong. On further reflection I realised that there is no correct answer, because there is insufficient info. The question should be "what's the odds of getting pocket aces twice in a row given...."

For example, what's the odds of getting aces twice in a row in the next two hands is 1 in 48841.

But the odds of getting aces twice in a row given that you got aces in the first hand is only 1 in 221. Not so remarkable after all.

And the odds of getting dealt pocket aces twice in a row during a session of 100 hands? Pretty high I guess!

2 comments:

Paul said...

What about the odds on getting them cracked twice in a row? I think Aces are a hand which get badly misplayed because of all the hype which surrounds them. They are a value hand and you want to make the most of them. You have to get out if its apparent they are beat which is the downfall of many players when there is a flush or straight on the board.

Anonymous said...

The chances of getting AA back to back are greatly increased over a larger scope of hands.

There is a discussion on the 2 + 2 forum

 

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