What is "Equity Value"?
Imagine in a hand of No Limit Texas Hold'em you have AhQh and your opponent has KsKc. Your opponent raises to $10 and is all-in. You call the bet, making the pot $20.** (Assume for this example that you and your opponent posted the blinds, all other players folded, and that there is no rake.)
According to PokerZebra the probability you will win this is hand is 32.1%. If you replayed this hand thousands of times, over the long run you would win 32.1% of the time. Your equity value is how much you would be likely to win per hand if you replayed this hand thousands of times, each time from a random deck. Therefore your equity value is 32.1% * $20 = $6.42
The formula for equity value (also known as pot equity) is:
equity value = the probability you'll win * (the total pot, after the rake is removed)
What is "Equity Value Difference"?
If you win the hand, you'll win $20. You'll have exceeded your equity in the pot by $20 - $6.42 = $13.58. Your Equity Value Difference is -$13.58.
If you lose the hand, you'll be $6.42 below your equity in the pot. Your Equity Value Difference is $6.42.
The formula for Equity Value Difference is:
Equity Value Difference = your equity value - what you won = (the probability you'll win * the total pot, after the rake is removed) - what you won
Remember this: when you lose an all-in hand, you'll have a positive equity value difference. When you win an all-in hand and exceed pot equity, you'll have a negative equity value difference. The exceptions are when you had 0% equity or 100% equity, in which case your equity value difference will be zero.
How do I read the "All-in Equity" chart?
In the short run, the "All-in Equity" chart is a crude measure of luck. Did you have some bad luck in the current session? Then your "Total Winnings" will be below your "All-in Equity Value" line. Did you get some lucky breaks? Then the "Total Winnings" line will be above the "All-in Equity Value" line.In the long run, the "All-in Equity" chart is a measure of how good your reads are when going all-in.
If, in the long run, you mostly go all-in when you have favourable equity, then your "Total Winnings" line will be above your "All-in Equity Value" line. You are tending to correctly guess what ranges of cards your opponents have, and are making all-in bets and calls wisely, based on those guesses.
If, in the long run, you mostly go all-in when you have unfavourable equity, then your "Total Winnings" line will be below your "All-in Equity Value" line. You need to be more selective in going all-in.
A good luck/good read "All-in Equity" chart:
A bad luck/bad read "All-in Equity" chart:
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5 comments:
the way this is phrased is kind of misleading.
if your actual EV is higher than your expected EV, you are running good (good luck).
if your actual EV is lower than your expected EV, you are running bad (bad luck).
but neither of these things have anything to do with reads.
if your expected EV graph is sloping up from left to right, you are making good reads-- getting money in with the best of it, regardless of where the actual EV line is.
if your expected EV graph is sloping down from left to right, you are making bad reads-- getting the money in with the worst of it.
Please do clear this up for me. Should I be concerned if my blue line (actual) is below my yellow line (EV) even if both are trending up? Or should I only be concerned if one or both are trending down? (Actually, I already know I'll be concerned if/when the blue one starts trending down.)
I really would like some tips on reading the EV chart. Call me slow, but I don't get it. Megalofvia and Steve seem to be saying opposite things.
Thx, Mtume.
P.S. Is there a way to paste a jpg into these comments?
think of the ev chart as a way to guage luck- how good or bad you are running.
the only thing you can control (somewhat) about the EV chart is the direction of the expected (orange) line.
the direction of the actual (blue) line is a representation of the manifestation of luck throughout the hands you play. if your orange line is going up, you're doing fine. don't worry about the blue line, it really doesn't matter, except as a way to guage if you are having "good luck" or "bad luck" in the short term.
Hey steve, it seems I'm unable to use various filters on the All-In Equity Chart. I've tried several times to filter by buy in amount but keeping getting the same graph w/ the same number of hands.
Are the filters supposed to be working with this feature?
OK, thanks. That's a good explanation. So the orange line is how I would be doing if luck wasn't a factor and blue is how I'm actually doing. Got it.
The strange thing is, my orange line is significantly above my blue line. And until two days ago, I thought I was running good. Hmm....
Okay, one more question. At about 13,000 hands played, there developed a gap of about T50,000 between my EV and my actual. Now, at 25,000+ hands played, the gap is up to T60,000.
My question is this. Does that mean I've run a total of T10,000 below expectation for the last 12,000 hands? Because, if so, that's not so unlucky. And also, does that mean I ran about T50,000 below expectation for my first 13,000 hands?
Thanks again,
Mtume.
P.S. Would you be so kind as to pinpoint the exact # of hands played where I will suddenly become lucky? I'll buy into the Sunday Million that week! ;-)
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