Sentence of the Day

An injection of reality for budding software entrepreneurs:

"Silicon Valley is WAAAY too infatuated with the ELEGANT IDEALISM of Entrepreneurship (or the GOLLUM GREED of making a shitload of CASH) , rather than the GRITTY REALITY of running a CRAPPY little startup business that will..."

Poker Copilot is not my first, nor my second business venture. It's my third. One day I may blog about the reasonably successful first venture and the stillborn second one.

Mockups of HUD Layout Customizer

My next major task for Poker Copilot is the "HUD Layout Customizer". This will allow you to tweak the layout of the HUD, to add layouts for different table themes, and - best of all, I think - to share layouts with others.

Here's a mockup of where I'm heading with this (click for a full-size image):


The dialogs for copy, remove, and edit:
The import and export dialogs; I need to mull over these some more:

I made the mockups with the awesome Mockups application.

Poker Copilot Video Demo

I'm learning how to make video demos. And I continue to learn.

Here's a demo of using the Poker Copilot HUD with Full Tilt Poker. I'm posting this video to help myself get over the "OMG is that really what I sound like?" part of recording.



Poker Copilot's HUD with Full Tilt Poker from Steve McLeod on Vimeo.

Poker Copilot for Mac OS X...and Windows?

Spyros (amongst others) asked via email:

I cannot find available a windows version of Poker Copilot. Could you please let me know if there is one. If there is not, why?

I created Poker Copilot for Mac OS X because no such Mac product was available. But I get this question often enough for me to contemplate whether a Windows version would be feasible, practical, and worthwhile.

Let's see...

• the Windows market has two very entrenched major players, but...Poker Copilot is easier to install and use than either of them.
  
• a Windows version would stretch my development time, but...most of my code is in Java, which is easy to transfer from Mac OS X to Windows.

I need to think about this some more. In any case, a Windows version would be many months away. Too many version 1.x features still to do in the Mac version!

New Advanced Stats: Early Access Version

I've added:

• Fold to three-bet %: how often a player folds to a a three-bet
  
• Fold to continuation bet %: how often a player folds to a continuation bet
  
• Fold big blind to steal attempt %: how often a player folds the big blind to a blind steal attempt - IF the small blind folded.

Here's how I have customised the HUD to show these:


I just know there is going to be some controversy over the definition of these! If you would like to give them a test, download this version of Poker Copilot. The new stats can be added to the on-table HUD using the Preferences. You can also see them from the Players summary by double-clicking an any player.

If you find mistakes I'd be grateful if you could send me the hand history for the hand with the error.

Poker Experts, I need your help again

I'm trying to define a new stat "Folded big blind to blind steal attempt". Read my dilemma here.

Thanks

Ronald writes:

"My poker tracking software, Poker Copilot just added a c-bet frequency stat to their HUD. Most people reading this won't know what that means, but, basically, it means profit for me."

I didn't realise c-bet frequency (continuation bet frequency) was so important, although I'm quickly learning why it is. Ronald (et al), you'll be happy to know that a bunch of new advanced stats will appear in the next Poker Copilot update.

Poker Copilot is "Sitelinked"

Google has given Poker Copilot "Sitelinks" (those links directly to various parts of a website you sometimes see in a Google search):

According to Google's info, sitelinks are "additional links Google sometimes generates from site contents in order to help users navigate your site. Google generates these sitelinks periodically from your site's contents."

I'm extremely happy with this.

Sentence of the Day

Sometimes I read a sentence that perfectly captures my view. I found one here:

"It’s important that I generate some money from my work, but it’s not necessary that I extract every possible dollar."

Which Countries Buy Poker Copilot?

Another chart today, this one showing sales by country. God bless America, the home of 56% of my sales.


Like other data I collect, I don't know what to make of this. Is it of any use at all except satisfying curiosity? Does it imply that I should consider localising for France and Germany?

An Interview about Poker Copilot

Mac Poker posted the transcript of an interview with yours truly.

That's my personal good news for the day. My personal bad news: I got banned from a Poker forum I joined today. They didn't seem to like me joining in a conversation about Poker Copilot, as the developer. And I thought I was treading softly...

Making sense of my Google traffic

Last month, Google users found http://pokercopilot.com/ through 237 unique search phrases. After removing the ones that directly specify "Poker Copilot" in a range of spellings, there are about 230 phrases. The top phrase - "poker tracking software mac" - sent me only 2.5% of my Google traffic.

Which makes me think that the conventional approach to search engine optimisation is flawed. That approach is to choose a few highly relevant keywords, and do everything possible to rank highly for them. But it ignores the reality: that websites receive Google traffic through an ever-changing, highly varied long list of keywords.

What are the ramifications of this?

• Forget about trying to "own" specific search phrases on Google.
  
• Ensure that your site meets Google's own suggestions for good indexing.
• Aim to use many specific "target" words in your website copy, but don't focus on using the same phrase repeatedly.
• Aim to get lots of in-bound links, but not through nefarious means.

It's well-known that search traffic follows a "long-tail" distribution. Amazingly, once I remove the top phrases, all of which directly specify "Poker Copilot", what I'm left with also follows the long-tail distribution.


For Google Analytics users, Juice Analytics have produced Concentrate, a tool to help make sense of the long-tail of Google keywords.

How do paying customers hear of Poker Copilot?

For the last few months I've given people who purchase Poker Copilot a survey with exactly one question:

"Where did you hear about Poker Copilot?"

I collated the answers for the 100 most recent purchases:The problem is, I don't exactly know how to interpret these results. Does the dominance of Google in this chart mean that:

• I've put too much effort optimising for Google and should concentrate now on other sources? or
• Optimising for Google is by far the best means of getting more sales, so I should neglect the other sources and tweak everything possible to get better Google rankings for every search phrase I can think of?

Of the various forums in the survey, 2+2 dominates. I search 2+2 almost every day for any mention of Poker Copilot. I announce major new releases there. Does the data indicate that I should spend even more time on 2+2, or that I've been neglecting other forums?

I have this problem in general with the mounds of data that I collect from various sources: how to interpret and use it.

A final observation from this graph for Mac developers: the Apple downloads site is responsible for a huge percentage of my downloads but very little of my sales.

Quick Poker Copilot Update

The 3-bet frequency stat on the dashboard was way, way wrong on the update I released yesterday. It was showing the number of times you made a 3-bet, and not the frequency. Fortunately it was correct (as far as I can tell) in the HUD.

I've just released a new update that fixes this problem.

Poker Copilot 1.55 Released

This is another stability/bug-fix release with some incremental improvements. This include:

• the ability to use the HUD with Full Tilt and PokerStars simultaneously, even if your nicknames are different
• the player filter has moved to the View menu
• support for Full Tilt matrix tournaments is improved
• HUD stat positioning is slightly tweaked
• the formatting of the HUD stats uses the available space better
• 3-bet is now "3-bet preflop"

You can download from http://pokercopilot.com/. Enjoy!

Joda: the answer to all Java date questions

My first rule of stackoverflow.com:

Question about Java dates ==> Answer mentions Joda.

Poker Copilot Review in French

A review of Poker Copilot in French has been posted.

I don't speak French, so I don't know if this is a positive or negative review!

Poker Copilot: What's Hot, What's Not

For the last few weeks, Poker Copilot asks new users whether we can track their usage:I've now got enough usage data to make an attractive chart showing the most popular Poker Copilot features:

Look at the "Player Name Filter", in last place. This little-used feature gives several users grief. It is only useful for the tiny group of Poker Copilot users who play online under more than one nickname. So I'm taking it away from the Filter toolbar. As of the next update, the "Player Name" selection is accessible via a menu. And it defaults to "All" players, which means all nicknames you play under.

Interesting is that the only heavily used charts are custom charts and the bankroll charts.

Changes to 3-bet Statistics

In the next update of Poker Copilot, there's a revised calculation for 3-bet. It used to be
(3-bet on any street)/(hands played) * 100

Now it is
(3-bet preflop)/(3-bet preflop opportunities) * 100

It gives a vastly different number. Much higher.

Optimising Customer Support

On the Business of Software forum, I asked:

What are proven strategies for 1-person companies to keep up with the daily deluge of user e-mails?

Here's a summary of the excellent responses:

Change the Product based on Common Requests
Examine common requests and consider how you can change the product to eliminate them.

Have a Forum
Customers will often look in the forum to see if someone else has asked the same question.

Test-Driven Development
Have a battery of ever-growing automated unit tests, so repeated failures of the same type are
uncommon.

Beta-testing
Have a good pool of beta testers who can point out the obvious stuff which is all too
easy to miss - that's invaluable.

Use Defect-Tracking Software/Customer Support Software
Having a good system, such as FogBugz, in place to respond to emails helps.

Virtual Personal Assistant
A virtual personal assistant can offer Tier 1 user support.

Have a FAQ
A FAQ is very important. Whenever you get the same request or question more than 2
or 3 times add it to the help file.

Raise the Price
Low price = high support costs. If you can sell 1 copy for $39.95, or 2 for $19.95...which will cost you less down the road?

Optimise Workflow
Check email only twice a day.

Optimise User Interface
People suck at following directions. Computers do not. Optimize accordingly. Spend extra time on coding and UI to have the computer do more of the work.

Make it harder to fail and easier to recover from failure
Example possible failure: people might confuse your registration key with a transaction number, so you prefix the reg key with a unique string and pre-fill that on the form. This sharply cuts down on the number of people who fill in your Paypal transaction ID in the field, find it doesn't work, and then immediately mail support.

Use Snippets for Common Emails
Snippets are very helpful in getting a reply out quickly.

Relentless, continuous improvement...
...in program, website text, and support emails as you learn what isn't working.

Thanks to all whose text I have shamelessly reshaped. Let me know if you want acknowledgement via a link to your site.

Poker Copilot 1.54 Released

The newest update is waiting for you to download. This has no new features. It's a stability-and-reliability update. In other words I did some bug fixes, including:

• support for tournaments with rebuys and add-ons
• converting "tournament entry" prizes into a cash equivalent in the stats
  
• a more accurate continuation bet calculation
• no more spurious "Change the PokerStars hand history to English" messages
• much better performance when you have more than 100,000 hands
• the HUD is more stable
• better performance in general
  

For the technically inclined: I rediscovered the beauty of the producer-consumer pattern. I use it often in my enterprise consulting gigs in the form of JMS or ActiveMQ, but I hadn't thought of applying it to desktop software.

I replaced the communication between the HUD and the rest of the app with a producer-consumer approach. The result is a much more reliable system, less susceptible to oscillating CPU usage. Java's BlockingQueue makes implementing this a cinch.

It Makes Me Happy...

...to find people using Poker Copilot on the big world-wide-web and posting screenshots.

Help Me, Poker Experts!

I played a tournament satellite and finished equal 1st, winning entry to another tournament. The hand history doesn't state how much that is worth, but clearly it is not worth nothing. How can Poker Copilot automatically and simply determine the "amount" I've won?

Here's an excerpt from the tournament summary log, showing what the total info available. (I'm stevoski111):

Full Tilt Poker Tournament Summary Sat to the $100K Double Deuce (75824401) Hold'em No Limit
Buy-In: $0.50 + $0.10
Add-On: $0.50
Rebuy: $0.50
stevoski111 performed 1 Add-On
stevoski111 performed 2 Rebuys
Buy-In Chips: 1000
Add-On Chips: 1500
Rebuy Chips: 1000
154 Entries
Total Add-Ons: 61
Total Rebuys: 169
Total Prize Pool: $192
Top 8 finishers receive Entry to Tournament #73510655
Tournament started: 2009/01/11 9:24:01 ET
Tournament finished: 2009/01/11 11:07:57 ET

1: roycecs, Entry to Tournament #73510655
1: bamafreak, Entry to Tournament #73510655
1: sarotti1, Entry to Tournament #73510655
1: Lucky855, Entry to Tournament #73510655
1: Climber112, Entry to Tournament #73510655
1: stevoski111, Entry to Tournament #73510655
1: Ali3072, Entry to Tournament #73510655
1: floppin fran, Entry to Tournament #73510655
9: LaurenS2, $7.20
10: VinnyVik, $4
11: jacksorbeterz, $2.88
12: CAUSEMAN, $1.92

Oops...Poker Copilot Working Again

Sorry to all who downloaded Poker Copilot in the last two days to find that it won't start. If you download Poker Copilot now, you'll find that it is now working.

It was a sloppy mistake on my behalf. I've now added another step to my "Release Checklist" to prevent the same mistake happening again.

Feel-Good Comment of the Day

"This has to be the best support/customer service I've come across!", wrote a Poker Copilot user recently.

Don't Take it Personally

A side effect of creating Poker Copilot is an overflowing e-mail inbox. So far I've just managed to keep on top of it. Normally the e-mails are either user support ("My license key isn't working") or positive feedback ("I really like Poker Copilot, and I'd like it even more if it comfabulated my data").

A couple of times I got a nasty e-mail. A stranger writes in a tone they would never use in person. "Your crappy software is not worth half of what you charge", or somesuch, they write. Even worse, someone posts some bad insults about Poker Copilot on a public forum. But this doesn't bother me. I told myself the day I started Poker Copilot, "Don't take it personally". "It" is whatever crap I might get flung at me.

Thick skin is what you need as soon as you make yourself publicly visible. In any business venture you need to take what happens as "business". False promises made? Screwed over by a client? Don't take it personally.

The more successful your software or business or public persona is, the most you are exposed to abuse. The people who give the abuse make up the tiniest sliver of the people you interact with. But if you let them, they can take over your thoughts. Don't take it personally.

I've applied this concept so well that I actually don't remember the personal attacks. I know they happened, but I let them bounce off my hard skin.

To the people who write me friendly, positive, and polite e-mails: Thank you! To the few others: I didn't take it personally.

Poker Copilot Review

"Poker Software" added a Poker Copilot review to their website today.

Today's Second Updated Poker Copilot Version

Several people have pointed out a bug that snuck through testing and made it into version 1.49: all information is doubled.

Therefore I've released another update already, now downloadable from http://pokercopilot.com/

I've also added a new statistic, "continuation bet frequency" to the HUD.

Free Poker Copilot Licenses for Bloggers

If you are a blogger or journalist willing to write a review of Poker Copilot for Mac OS X, email me and I'll send you a license, FREE of charge.

The rules:

• almost anything goes, you can write a positive review, a negative review, or something in between. I don't ask to screen reviews.
• your blog must be real, not something created in five minutes simply for the sake of getting a free license. At least some months old, with real, regular content.

Poker Copilot 1.49 Released

I've just released a new update. It has the following features:

• much better performance at start-up, especially for PowerPC users
• the ability to customise some aspects of performance, via the Preferences
• a new "Current Poker Copilot Session" option in the Range filter. This means you can view graphs and tables for the current session
• better HUD stability
• better HUD performance if you have loads of data
• a new "Basic" dashboard, designed to not overwhelm first-time users.
• various small bug fixes
  

You can download it from http://pokercopilot.com/

Poker Copilot: The (Half-)Year in Review

It's January 1st. I'm recovering from New Year's celebrations. A new Ice Age hit Germany recently, keeping me indoors. So it's a good time to look back on Poker Copilot in 2008.

Summary: Things went very well.

I launched Poker Copilot on July 1st. The first release was somewhat light on features.But it was enough for people to find it, try it out, and tell me what missing features were most important.

Traffic to the Poker Copilot website rose consistently:


Downloads also kept rising:


But most importantly for long-term viability for this project, sales kept rising:

The curious are looking at this unlabelled chart and wondering: how much does Poker Copilot earn? Let me keep some secrets! Monthly revenue is 4 digits, healthy, but not enough to justify giving up my day job - yet.

With feedback and support from many Mac-owning poker players, I've kept adding most requested features, worked hard on keeping the user interface simple, and tried to make Poker Copilot something unique in the world of poker tracking software.

Plans for 2009:

Personal directions:
When my current consulting gig ends in March, I'm taking six months off, and dragging my German girlfriend down under to Australia. There I'll work exclusively on Poker Copilot and one or two other side projects. It will be the big test as to whether I can increase sales enough to give up the consulting work altogether. For many years it has been my dream to earn my living by creating and selling software products. That dream now feels like it could soon become reality.

Software directions:
I'll keep doing things as I have been: adding most-requested features and releasing updates often.

Marketing directions:
The current approach has worked well so I'll continue: openly and frequently blog, participate in forums, try to offer outstanding customer support. I'll improve my marketing and sales efforts gradually, slowly, and continually.