The Poker Copilot Blog

Tracking the development of Poker Copilot, Mac OS X software for poker analysis and statistics.

Saturday, 20 September 2008

Dow Jones vs World Travelling

A brief comment on another form of gambling: the stock market.

Conventional wisdom says that in the long run you always get a decent return on the stock market, right? in the long run? What does that mean specifically? Eight years or so, that, for me, is a long time.

So let's see...the Dow Jones index on - let's pick a date for this contrived example - oh, I don't know, how about January 14th, 2000 - was 11,722.

And the Dow Jones today is 11,388. That's a total return over almost nine years of -2.8%. Take inflation into account, and we talking about a serious way to lose money. If you had $10,000 to invest back on Jan 14th, 2000, you'd have been wiser blowing it all on an extended round-the-world trip. Which is, coincidentally, what I did.

3 comments:

Mike said...

Conventional wisdom tells us a lot of things that aren't true. Lemmings jumping off cliffs, the supernatural, etc.

Certainly I wouldn't trust my money to conventional wisdom over 8 years on the stock market without any management. Some of the stock brokers I work with make very healthy returns for their customers that, if properly managed, may have given you the option for maybe another world cruises for free next year :)

I certainly understand the wisdom of blowing it all on a big holiday :) you'll have the long term memories for a long time yet :)

Conventional wisdom is wrong on housing and gold prices too!

Sohail Somani said...

If you just leave your money in the stock market for 8 years without managing it, you deserve to have a negative return.

The stock market isn't a magic money genie. It is a machine, you need to learn its rules.

Anonymous said...

as economists like to say ... in the long run, we're all dead.

 

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